Abstract
Despite having been identified as one of the growth drivers to food security, agricultural research investment in Malaysia demonstrates a stagnating and deterioration trends to underinvestment over the years. Previous studies identified the positive associations between agricultural research and economic development and growth. Currently, none of the comprehensive studies had looked at research investment and its impacts on agricultural growth in Malaysia. Thus, this study measures performance and the effectiveness of investment in the agricultural sector and uses both historical and primary data from multiple series of surveys on Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI). The most recent ASTI data was obtained through primary surveys conducted in 2018/2019, covering the database for the period 2013 to 2017 from 33 agricultural research agencies from public and private sectors, including public universities in the country. Interviews using structured questionnaires were used as survey instruments to obtain data on investment from 2013 to 2017. The historical ASTI data was available from previous survey rounds. All data were aggregated and merged with existing ASTI datasets to show long-term trends at the national, regional and global levels. Several analyses and parameters including ASTI Intensity Index (AII), total factor
productivity (TFP), output growth decomposition, and returns on investment are applied to identify the performance, intensity and efficiency of agricultural research in Malaysia. The AII reached a maximum level in 2002 with a value of 0.81, indicating the investment effort was 80% of that of the United States in 2011. However, stagnated investment caused Malaysia’s AII dropping to 0.35 in 2016, resulting in the investment gap or the year to increase by almost 40%. The results of TFP for the total agriculture confirmed that there was no significant growth in agricultural productivity in Malaysia, while the output growth was largely due to increased use of inputs. The result of output growth decomposition revealed that the total output was largely contributed by increasing the harvested area and crop yield. The analysis on returns of R&D investment indicated that oil palm dominated knowledge stocks since the year 2000 and is projected to be the highest by 2050, followed by fruits and fisheries industry. The investment projections shows that MPOB will continue to grow until 2050 while MARDI stagnates, with its knowledge stock remaining low as in 2017. Malaysia has now been confronted with several consequence from poor performance in research, which resulted in zero growth, mainly due to diminishing research investment during the past years, albeit spending below its potential investment, hence the R&D system became less efficient with unpredicted returns. The findings of this study are crucial and useful for future research directions and policy formulation to reinforce the agricultural sector in this region.

Abstrak
Indikator pelaburan penyelidikan sektor pertanian yang merupakan antara pemacu sekuriti makanan menunjukkan tren yang statik dan merosot di Malaysia menjadikan prestasi pelaburan penyelidikan sektor pertanian negara berada di bawah tahap sasaran sebenar. Situasi ini dijangka memberi impak kepada pertumbuhan sektor pertanian yang seterusnya akan menjejas strategi yang digariskan dalam agenda sekuriti makanan negara. Secara global, kajian saintifik telah membuktikan hubungan yang positif dan signifikan di antara penyelidikan pertanian dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sesebuah negara. Di Malaysia, sehingga kini tiada kajian yang komprehensif menilai impak pelaburan penyelidikan ke atas pertumbuhan sektor pertanian. Justeru, kajian ini mengenalpasti prestasi, intensiti dan keberkesanan pelaburan penyelidikan sektor pertanian di Malaysia. Keduadua kumpulan data primer dan sekunder digunakan dalam kajian ini. Data primer dikumpul melalui kajian Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) 2018/19 menggunakan kaedah temubual bersemuka dan soal-selidik berstruktur melibatkan 33 agensi penyelidikan di sektor pertanian yang terdiri daripada sektor awam, sektor swasta dan universiti. Pengkalan data kajian ASTI yang telah dikumpul melalui beberapa siri survei ke atas agensi penyelidikan di sektor pertanian bagi tempoh 2013 – 2017. Kesemua data dianalisis dan fokus parameter adalah ASTI Intensity Index (AII), total factor productivity (TFP), output growth decomposition, dan returns on investment (ROI) bagi menilai prestasi, intensiti dan keberkesanan pelaburan penyelidikan bagi sektor pertanian di Malaysia. Nilai indeks (AII) 0.81 menerangkan tahap intensiti pelaburan penyelidikan sektor pertanian yang maksimum telah mencapai 80% pada tahun 2002, namun trend pelaburan yang statik adalah antara penyebab indeks AII merosot kepada 0.35 pada tahun 2016 menyebabkan jurang di antara jumlah sasaran pelaburan dan jumlah sebenar telah meningkat sehingga 40%. Nilai TFP mengesahkan tiada pertumbuhan yang signifikan ke atas produktiviti pertanian di Malaysia dan ini menjelaskan pertumbuhan output adalah disebabkan pertambahan nilai input dalam ekosistem penyelidikan pertanian. Dapatan Output Growth Decomposition menunjukkan jumlah output pertanian disumbangkan dari peningkatan jumlah keluasan yang seterusnya memberi sumbangan kepada peningkatan hasil tanaman. Analisis pulangan pelaburan (ROI) penyelidikan sektor pertanian menunjukkan komoditi kelapa sawit mendominasi knowledge stocks pada tahun 2000 dan diunjur kekal dominan sehingga 2050, diikuti oleh sub sektor buah dan perikanan. Dari aspek agensi penyelidikan utama di Malaysia, unjuran knowledge stock menunjukkan prestasi pelaburan MPOB terus meningkat, manakala MARDI kekal statik dengan nilai yang rendah. Kajian ini merumuskan bahawa pertumbuhan sektor pertanian Malaysia dipengaruhi oleh prestasi pelaburan penyelidikan yang merosot sejak bertahun yang lalu, malah jumlah perbelanjaan penyelidikan pertanian tidak mencapai sasaran, sekaligus memberi implikasi kepada kualiti penyelidikan dan pembangunan di sektor pertanian. Dapatan kajian ini menyediakan garis panduan kepada halatuju agenda penyelidikan dan pembangunan bagi memperkukuhkan sektor pertanian negara di masa hadapan.