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Abstract
Coconut is the fourth most important agricultural commodity in Malaysia after palm oil, rubber and paddy. It is the oldest industrial crop in Malaysia which contributed RM70.1 million, equivalent to 0.06% of Malaysia’s agricultural export revenue in 2018 (DOA 2019). Other than fresh coconut, there are downstream products such as coconut milk, desiccated coconut, charcoal, activated carbon, coconut oil, fibre, and cocopeat. All these products are widely sold at domestic and international markets. There are three primary sources of coconut-based products, namely coconut kernel, coconut fibre, and coconut shell. Like other industries, coconut products from Malaysia also face various challenge and competition, especially from other coconut producing countries in Asia. The potential market assessment uses time series secondary data obtained from the COMTRADE database. In addition, the Comparative Export Performance (CEP) method was used to measure level of the country’s competitiveness. The study revealed that the top five most potential products based on export values are coconut oil, coconut milk, activated carbon, coconut charcoal, and processed coconut water. Five countries are vital trading partners for coconut products, namely Singapore, the United States, Indonesia, Japan and China. The exponential smoothing algorithm (ETS) forecasting showed that coconut oil exports are likely to decline slowly by 2030 while exports for other coconut products predicted to increase. The results of the CEP method revealed that Malaysia has high competitiveness for coconut oil and coconut milk in Singapore with a positive indicator value of CEP. The findings of this study can be used as a basic information to formulate strategies in developing the coconut industry in Malaysia and strengthen the implementation of national coconut industry programs.

Abstrak
Kelapa merupakan komoditi pertanian keempat terpenting di Malaysia selepas kelapa sawit, getah dan padi. Tanaman ini merupakan tanaman industri tertua di Malaysia yang menyumbang RM70.1 juta atau 0.06% kepada hasil eksport pertanian Malaysia pada 2018 (DOA 2019). Selain kelapa segar, terdapat produk hiliran seperti santan, kelapa kering, arang, karbon teraktif, minyak kelapa, serat dan cocopeat. Kesemua produk ini dipasarkan secara meluas di pasaran domestik dan antarabangsa. Terdapat tiga sumber utama produk berasaskan kelapa, iaitu isi kelapa, sabut kelapa, dan tempurung kelapa. Seperti produk lain, produk kelapa dari Malaysia juga menghadapi pelbagai cabaran dan persaingan terutama dalam kalangan negara pengeluar kelapa di Asia. Penilaian pasaran berpotensi menggunakan data sekunder siri masa yang diperoleh daripada pangkalan data COMTRADE. Selain itu, kaedah Comparative Export Performance (CEP) digunakan untuk mengukur tahap daya saing negara. Kajian ini mendedahkan lima produk paling berpotensi berdasarkan nilai eksport iaitu minyak kelapa, santan, karbon teraktif, arang kelapa dan air kelapa yang diproses. Lima negara merupakan rakan dagangan penting Malaysia bagi produk kelapa, iaitu Singapura, Amerika Syarikat, Indonesia, Jepun dan China. Ramalan algoritma pelicinan eksponen (ETS) menunjukkan eksport minyak kelapa berkemungkinan merosot secara perlahan menjelang 2030 manakala eksport untuk produk kelapa lain pula dijangka meningkat. Keputusan kaedah CEP mendedahkan bahawa Malaysia mempunyai daya saing yang tinggi untuk minyak kelapa dan santan di Singapura dengan nilai penunjuk positif CEP. Dapatan kajian ini boleh digunakan sebagai maklumat asas untuk merangka strategi dalam membangunkan industri kelapa di Malaysia dan memantapkan lagi pelaksanaan program industri kelapa negara.

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